San Ramon Earthquake Forecast
Last Event: 2026-02-14 04:42:56 PST |
Generated: 2026-02-14 15:32:46 PST |
Elapsed: 10.83h
Swarm Risk (Next 24 Hours): LOW (21.0%)
Seismic activity frequency is within normal limits. (Probability of >5 events)
Short-Term Probabilities
| Threshold | 4h | 8h | 12h | 24h | 48h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mag ≥ 2 | 0.0% | 1.0% | 5.0% | 10.0% | 19.0% |
| Mag ≥ 3 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Mag ≥ 4 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Mag ≥ 5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Long-Term Probabilities
| Threshold | 4 Days | 7 Days | 14 Days | 30 Days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mag ≥ 2 | 37.0% | 51.0% | 74.0% | 84.0% |
| Mag ≥ 3 | 1.0% | 3.0% | 10.0% | 12.0% |
| Mag ≥ 4 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Mag ≥ 5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Visualizations
Reference Maps & History
Model Validation Report
Methodology: Models trained on first 80% of history, tested on last 20%.
Test Period: 2017-09-12 to 2026-02-14
1. Swarm Classification Performance
| Metric | Score |
|---|---|
| Accuracy | 87.6% |
| F1-Score (Swarm Class) | 0.78 |
2. Time-to-Event Regression Error (MAE)
| Target | Mean Absolute Error (MAE) | Test Sample Size |
|---|---|---|
| Mag ≥ 2 | 128.5 hours | 1886 |
| Mag ≥ 3 | 157.8 hours | 876 |
| Mag ≥ 4 | 158.2 hours | 138 |
MAE represents the average error in hours when predicting the next event time.
