San Ramon Earthquake Forecast

Last Event: 2026-02-14 04:42:56 PST | Generated: 2026-02-14 15:32:46 PST | Elapsed: 10.83h

Swarm Risk (Next 24 Hours): LOW (21.0%)

Seismic activity frequency is within normal limits. (Probability of >5 events)

Short-Term Probabilities

Threshold4h8h12h24h48h
Mag ≥ 20.0%1.0%5.0%10.0%19.0%
Mag ≥ 30.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Mag ≥ 40.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Mag ≥ 50.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%

Long-Term Probabilities

Threshold4 Days7 Days14 Days30 Days
Mag ≥ 237.0%51.0%74.0%84.0%
Mag ≥ 31.0%3.0%10.0%12.0%
Mag ≥ 40.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Mag ≥ 50.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%

Visualizations

Reference Maps & History

Model Validation Report

Methodology: Models trained on first 80% of history, tested on last 20%.

Test Period: 2017-09-12 to 2026-02-14

1. Swarm Classification Performance

MetricScore
Accuracy87.6%
F1-Score (Swarm Class)0.78

2. Time-to-Event Regression Error (MAE)

TargetMean Absolute Error (MAE)Test Sample Size
Mag ≥ 2128.5 hours1886
Mag ≥ 3157.8 hours876
Mag ≥ 4158.2 hours138

MAE represents the average error in hours when predicting the next event time.